Predicting COVID-19 Patient Volume with the Local Risk Index

April 22, 2020

The CV19 Lab Testing Dashboard™ powered by hc1 differs from other COVID-19 dashboards in several ways, one being the focus on emerging hotspots within a state via a Local Risk Index (LRI). The LRI  shows where hotspots are emerging by comparing the Recent Percent Detected (+) rate to baseline rates (the first 2 weeks of testing in the selected area.)  Most other public health dashboards reflect “hotspots” based on the total number of COVID-19 cases over the entire multi-month period of the pandemic, not in the current week period. For example, here’s a look at the state of Georgia.

Based on the known average clinical course of COVID-19 from incubation to potential ICU-transfer and ventilation, timely local data visualization and LRI monitoring can help users predict 5 to 21 days in advance an acceleration or deceleration of patient volumes with symptomatic COVID-19, and the associated increase/decrease in local demand for COVID-19 care resources, such as PPE, ER visits, hospitalizations, ICU transfers, and ventilator usage.

• Increasing LRI alerts healthcare planners to when and where action must occur.
• The lack of an increase (flat graph) in the Local Risk Index (LRI) tells a community the current demand for clinical resources (PPE, ER visits, daily rate of new hospitalizations, ICU/Ventilator utilization) will continue over the next 5 to 21 days.
• Decreasing LRI shows that the pandemic wave is receding.

When I drill into the Marion county view and choose Fulton for comparison, note how the LRI differs between the 2 counties.

Local communities, public health officials, and healthcare organizations should continuously monitor their county or PUMA LRI trend to know when to act and where to act against the local impact of the COVID-19 pandemic.

About the Author

Peter J. Plantes, M.D. has three decades of experience creating service and delivery solutions that enhance marketplace success and clinical performance for clinical practice groups, academic faculty group practices, hospitals, health systems, and health care organizations. His success stems from his ability to blend and synergize clinical knowledge, operational expertise, financial performance, and collaborative methodology with his deep commitment to serve patients and improve the health of the community. Dr. Plantes has served in CEO & Physician Executive roles for a number of large healthcare clinical delivery networks including regional community networks, academic practices, national hospital networks, international health systems (Chile, Colombia),  and corporate managed care/HMO networks.