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By Dr. Peter J. Plantes

April 14, 2020

The CV19 Lab Testing Dashboard powered by hc1 shows people who are working to mitigate the spread of COVID-19 the latest trends in COVID-19 lab testing data at the national, state, county, and local level. Request access to this free public health service at CV19dashboard.org

The data in the CV19 Lab Testing Dashboard represents approximately 40% of all tests performed in the United States to date. Approximately 1,038,000 tests over the last 30 days have been analyzed, graphed, trended, and mapped nationally, by state, by county, and by public use microdata area (PUMA) in both National and State Deep Dive dashboards.

My analysis of the national dashboard shows these emerging and continuing trends:

  • Even in places where rates of testing are increasing, the percentage of citizens tested remains incredibly small. Rhode Island, for example, has the highest testing rate over 30 days at 1.3% of the state population with 13.2% Detected (+) for CoV-2 virus. Connecticut, Massachusetts (18.5%+), Washington (9.1%+), and Mississippi (9.3%+) are the other states with relatively high Rates of Testing per capita (however, all ≤ 0.8%.) New York, by contrast, has only 0.46 % of the population tested, but its 48% Detected (+) rate is one of the highest in the nation.
  • The percentage of test results that have detected COVID-19 has increased by 83.3% During the most recent 4-day period where data aggregation is complete (April 7-10), the percent Detected of those tested is 20.6% versus 11.24% Detected during the March 21 to 25 period.
  • The percentage of test results that have detected COVID-19 is starting to level out over the past 10-days in the range of 20% (+/- 1.5%). This leveling out is likely happening as efforts toward social distancing mitigation have been applied broader across the nation.
  • Of the total number of patients who had test results that detected COVID-19in the last 14 days, patients in their 20s, 30s, 40s, 50s, and 60s all had percentages of this total count in the double digits. Patients who are less than 10 years old make up less than 1% of the total number of patients who tested positive, and those who are 10 to 19 years old represent 1.67% of those who tested positive.
  • The percentage of those tested where COVID-19 was detected [%Detected (+)] increases in a linear manner for each age group from less than 10 years old (3.8%) to those greater than 80 years old(23.7%).
  • More women (58%) than men (42%) are tested, but more men (22.7%) than women (17.7%) have results that detected COVID-19.

COVID-19 Lab Data

The bottom line is that we would expect to see a continued high rate of ER visits, hospitalizations, ICU transfers, ventilator use, and deaths nationally over the next 8 to 21 days at least. Deaths will be the lagging indicator as it happens late in the typical disease course. Variability between different states and different counties however remains extremely variable with %Detection (+) Rates varying from 0% in many rural counties to 55.4% in Nassau County, NY.  There is a flattening out of the curve nationally in the trend of percentage of test results where COVID-19 is detected [%Detected (+)] to indicate the current level of mitigation is slowing the rate of pandemic infection.

To view how these trends are showing up at the local level, drill into the State Deep Dive dashboards for your area. If you see increasing % Detected rates, your community should expect to see a rising wave of severely clinically ill patients from COVID-19 over the next 8 to 21 days.

The more local data that is represented, the more sensitive and specific the trend analysis will be on a local level. I, therefore, encourage all  COVID-19 testing center labs to join the CV19 Lab Testing Dashboard Coalition where together we can save lives by mitigating the spread of COVID-19.

 

About the Author

Peter J. Plantes, M.D. has three decades of experience creating service and delivery solutions that enhance marketplace success and clinical performance for clinical practice groups, academic faculty group practices, hospitals, health systems, and health care organizations. His success stems from his ability to blend and synergize clinical knowledge, operational expertise, financial performance, and collaborative methodology with his deep commitment to serve patients and improve the health of the community. Dr. Plantes has served in CEO & Physician Executive roles for a number of large healthcare clinical delivery networks including regional community networks, academic practices, national hospital networks, international health systems (Chile, Colombia),  and corporate managed care/HMO networks.

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